Sam and Hustle analyst Zack walk through the findings from a team-wide outreach to futurists about opportunities in a post-COVID world. Zack explains what futurists actually do, then walks through Amy Webb’s five-question framework for anticipating change — a set of questions that also doubles as a solid checklist for anyone starting a business.
Speakers: Sam Parr (host), Zack (The Hustle analyst/writer)
Introduction: Futurists on Post-COVID Opportunities [00:00:00]
Sam: Welcome back. So Zack, this week I guess — we’ve done a lot of stories in recent weeks where we’ve helped you as readers navigate these uncertain times. We’ve written about a couple dozen stories on people and companies and how they’re pivoting. We did a webinar to break down next-tier steps that people need to be thinking about, and second-order effects that our colleague Steph Smith did. But one thing we kind of haven’t heard a lot from — and I think these are people who every day are thinking about these kinds of issues — is futurists. So this week we asked Zack and a bunch of our writers and analysts to reach out to a number of futurists and ask them a little bit about where they see things headed. Zack, what did you find?
What Futurists Actually Do [00:01:00]
Zack: Yeah, so I guess to start off — many of you might already know this, but futurists aren’t prophets. At least the good ones aren’t. They don’t claim to know the future. A futurist is basically just someone who studies next-order outcomes. They use signals and trends and analyze technology trends to try to get a bit of a grasp on what might be coming. It’s very interdisciplinary — they use mathematics, engineering, art, technology, forecasting models.
Zack: So we talked to a bunch of these folks on our team and kind of just asked them where they think the opportunities might be in a post-COVID world, what the emerging industries might be, and the short and long-term impact of this crisis on entrepreneurship. We got a lot of really interesting, varying answers. Some of the futurists we talked to were specialists in certain industries or sectors — like education — others were a bit more general. One of the recurring themes is that catastrophe is a catalyst for change and can lead to some really good things.
Amy Webb’s Five Questions [00:02:30]
Zack: One futurist that I think really highly of is Amy Webb. She shared a construct for how she thinks about change and how she anticipates things.
Sam: What was it she shared with you that was interesting?
Zack: So Amy Webb is what you’d call a quantitative futurist. She uses a lot of data to formulate her opinions on things. What she does is she always starts with a set of five questions. I’m going to share those here because I think it’s an interesting preface to what we’ll be talking about in our article.
Zack: She asks: Where and how are people wasting their time? That’s the first big question. She asks: Where and how are people having difficulty with technology? That’s an especially interesting one right now — we’re seeing a lot of new technologies emerging, video conferencing has been accelerated, others have struggled. The third question is: Where and how are people looking for information? Then she asks: Where and how are people stuck? And finally: How do people want to be perceived?
Zack: Those are the five big questions that guide a lot of her thinking about what’s to come.
Applying Futurist Thinking to Business [00:04:00]
Sam: It sounds like the kinds of questions you should ask yourself before you start a business. I’m curious to see what else we can learn from those — not just “how do you think about the future,” but how can you position yourself in front of that if you’re someone who needs a new job or is thinking about any business.
Zack: Sure, definitely. She took us through a number of hypothetical examples, which we’ll share more on in the piece. She kind of walked us through her framework for thinking about these things, particularly for entrepreneurs who are maybe looking to get their feet wet for the first time — or more importantly, looking to do something important right now.
Zack: I think there are going to be a lot of opportunities for entrepreneurs to do things that help other small business owners and entrepreneurs. I think that’s an important thing that shouldn’t be overlooked in this conversation.
Sam: That’s great. I will look forward to seeing more on this, and I’m sure you will too. Thanks again for joining us.